Countries where multiple independent risk streams are elevated at once — a stronger warning than any single index. Each stream is scored separately (a country's missing streams are excluded, never counted as calm), and we count how many are simultaneously hot. The five streams: .
scanning streams...
Streams: ViEWS conflict forecast, UCDP battle deaths, UNHCR displacement, V-Dem governance fragility, and GDELT adverse media pressure. A stream is “elevated” at or above the 50th percentile of its observed range (upper half of the normalised log range for magnitude streams). The score is an absolute count of elevated streams among those a country has data for — so countries with fewer than 3 observed streams (⚠ thin coverage, often where risk is highest) can under-alert. Missing streams are excluded, never counted as calm. This surfaces compounding risk; it is not a forecast.