CONFLICTIQ
Asia / LKA

Sri Lanka

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Instability
78.9
#19 most fragile
Power Rank
#39
2.8 CPI

Sri Lanka ranks #39 of 242 on the Composite Power Index (2.8/100), scored on military spending, active personnel, nuclear arsenal, economic size and logistics. Its Instability Index is 78.9/100 (#19 most fragile). Every figure below carries its source and year. Data read 2026-08-04.

What drives the instability score

Forecast conflict risk
100/100 · weight 35%
ViEWS
Forced displacement
74/100 · weight 25%
UNHCR
Governance fragility
17/100 · weight 10%
V-Dem

Capability and economy · click a metric to compare

gdp usd
99B
World Bank WDI / 2024
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gdp per capita
4.5K
World Bank WDI / 2024
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population
21.9M
World Bank WDI / 2024
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inflation pct
-0.4
World Bank WDI / 2024
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govt debt pct gdp
100.8
IMF WEO / 2024
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fiscal balance pct gdp
-5.4
IMF WEO / 2024
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current account pct gdp
1.2
IMF WEO / 2024
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reserves usd
6.8B
IMF IFS / 2025
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gold reserves tonnes
0.6
IMF IFS / 2025
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milex usd
1.4B
SIPRI Milex / 2025
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milex pct gdp
1.3
SIPRI Milex / 2025
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personnel active
255K
COW NMC / 2022
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cinc
0
COW NMC / 2022
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CINC is a composite index (already contains military spending, personnel, energy & population) — shown for reference; it is not added into the Composite Power Index to avoid double-counting. Each figure carries its own source year; vintages can differ.

Capability profile

Trajectory

GDP (USD)
Military spending (SIPRI, USD)
Arms imports (SIPRI, transfers/yr)

Governance

electoral democracy
0.8
V-Dem v15 / 2025
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liberal democracy
0.6
V-Dem v15 / 2025
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state capacity
0.8
V-Dem v15 / 2025
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Energy

primary energy ej
0.4
Our World in Data (Energy) / 2024
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electricity twh
17.3
Our World in Data (Energy) / 2025
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oil production twh
0
Our World in Data (Energy) / 2016
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gas production twh
0
Our World in Data (Energy) / 2016
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Strategic Relationships

Allies (0)

No alliance data loaded.

Neighbours (1)

India

Disputes (3)

COW Dyadic MID, 1816–2014 — historical register, not live rivalries. Count = militarized disputes; year = most recent; ● = peak intensity.

Signals

Airports
10
Ports
0
Satellites
0
Subsea cables
9
News items
0

Conflict forecast (ViEWS, 2029-04-01): 100% risk

Arms imports (SIPRI Arms Transfers, 2025): 3 transfers

Arms suppliers (2021–2025, transfers)
United States · 6Pakistan · 1India · 1China · 1Australia · 1

60% of imports from United States — supplier dependence

Displacement (UNHCR): 148.4K refugees originated · 4.1K IDPs · 213 hosted

Compare Sri Lanka with

IndiavsUnited StatesvsChinavsRussiavsNorth Koreavs

Neighbours and leading powers — each links to its own sourced dossier.