CONFLICTIQ
HEAD TO HEAD

Eritrea vs Ethiopia

Eritrea
20%
RAI
Ethiopia
80%

Verdict

Ethiopia holds a 80–20 advantage over Eritrea on the Relative Advantage Index, a decisive margin.

The margin is driven by economic size (GDP) (99% of the combined total, $150bn) and military spending (74% of the combined total, $528m).

1 factor — nuclear warheads — could not be scored because the figure is unpublished for at least one side. Those factors are excluded and the remaining weights renormalised, never substituted.

Factor by factor

FactorEritreaShareEthiopiaWeight
Military spending
SIPRI Milex
$182m
26%74%
$528m33%
Economic size (GDP)
World Bank WDI
$2.1bn
1%99%
$150bn27%
Active personnel
COW NMC
302.0k
38%62%
503.0k20%
Logistics & power projection
OurAirports
3
16%84%
1620%

Shares are each side's portion of the combined total for that factor. Weights are renormalised across the factors both sides publish — see the methodology. Data read 2026-08-04.

Full Eritrea dossier →Full Ethiopia dossier →Run a war game →

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Bordering states — the comparisons people actually search for.

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